MH370 models in one place

Satcom, flight models and drift, drawn from your own files. Where a source is missing or provisional, the page says so. The satellite and flight chapter closed on 6 October 2026 and was partly reopened on 7 October: the arc north of 27.5°S turns out to lie outside the model’s weather data, so northern endpoints were never testable. The drift branch is still open.

Satcom frozen

5,029 BTO/BFO rows from the Inmarsat log, the canonical 19-row event table and the published satellite states.

Flight models provisional

Average Day flights re-flown from your package, the High-Fidelity Average Day Solver (TASK_021), the TASK_022 terminal experiment, 97 Phase 5A candidates, BTO-only survivors.

Combined map

Arc, candidates, search areas and the reverse-drift density on one switchable map.

Drift assumption-dependent

17-month currents map, reverse-drift density, currents-only forward test, Tasks 7 to 9 (Task 9 complete).

Closing report satellite chapter

What the satcom and flight branch established, what it rests on, and an appendix of readings that were wrong.

Drift diagnostics conditional

Task 10 results, drifter hindcast, forward release grid, permutation null, the B1 stop, the provenance audit, and why no source region can be determined.

Status of each model

ModelStatusWhat this atlas showsWhat is missing here
Satellite BTO/BFOfrozenRaw burst log; June manifest facts (bias, calibration residual)Frozen v06 scorer outputs are not in the folders I could read
Average Day flight modelfrozen3 reference flights re-flown from your 3 Oct package (verify.py passes), TASK_021 solver, TASK_022 terminal experiment, TASK_026 convention sweep, TASK_029 reachabilityScore stops at 00:11; no endpoint by design. Chapter closed 6 Oct — see the closing report
Other endpoint workprovisionalTASK_021, TASK_022, the TASK_026 convention sweep and the TASK_030 arc-1 sweep, on the Flight models pageNo final coordinate exists in any source. Northern arc-1 starts score ten times better than C120's own start under a grid 145× too coarse to represent C120 — a positive indication that cannot be tested. The arc north of 27.5°S is outside the ERA5 domain and outside every search box in the manifest
Ocean currentsdataGLORYS12V1 daily surface currents, 17 monthsNot a drift result by itself
Debris driftassumption-dependentBaseline density; Tasks 7 and 8 resultsTasks 9–16: no source region is determinable. The method recovers known synthetic sources, but on the real finds the answer moves 1,000–1,900 km when an unmeasured assumption changes. B1 found no supported bias correction; the 1.2% slip floor was fitted to forcing products B0 does not use

Sources used

DataFileSnapshot
Canonical events, satellite state, Average Day flightsMH370_AverageDay_algorithm_2026-10-03.zip (data/, examples/, re-flown here)3 Oct 2026
Forward currents-only testreverse_drift_forward_summary.csvMar 2014 test
Burst logsatcom_observations.csv (WS-004 canon)13 Jul 2026 recovery
Event table, survivorssatcom_events.csv, candidate_survivors_top.csv (WS-002)11 Jun 2026 restart
CandidatesMH370_PHASE5A_CANDIDATE_STATUS.csv (WS-008)2 Aug 2026
7th arcreference_arc.json (Codex 2026-10-03), 40,000 ft reference3 Oct 2026
Radar, search areasradar_track_points.csv, search_history_manifest.csv (WS-004)13 Jul 2026
Drift density, Tasks 7 to 9 (Task 9 complete)Codex outputs, diagnostics_v23–5 Oct 2026
CurrentsGLORYS12V1 via Copernicus Marine; NCEP/NCAR windsMar 2014 – Jul 2015

Appendix: sources set aside